Why Sri Lanka should act as a balancing force for Maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean

Background story.

1.     As the third-largest body of water in the world, and containing vital sea-lanes that help feed some of Asia’s largest economies, the importance of the Indian Ocean has long been obvious. However, the relative decline of US power in the region has left a void that is increasingly being filled by China and India, both eager to secure their position as major power brokers in global affairs. It’s this confluence of events and interests that is starting to make strategic developments in the region particularly interesting right now[1].

2.     Sri Lanka's strategic position makes it vital for securing major sea-lanes in the Indian Ocean. To the South, the island's coast fronts the greater Indian Ocean, and to the North it opens to the ocean's marginal seas: the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Bay and the Bay of Bengal. It sits approximately halfway between the Suez and the Strait of Malacca, the key maritime choke points to the East and West, and along routes from the Strait of Hormuz, transit for most of Asia's rising powers’ energy supplies. The island has a number of natural harbors along its coast: Colombo and Galle in the Southwest, Hambantota in the Southeast, Trincomalee in the East and Jaffna in the North. A string of islands prevents large ships from passing through Palk Bay, preventing India's Southern coast from becoming an international maritime hub and making Sri Lanka's ports a better option.[2]

3.     The current Sri Lankan strategic direction in the Indian Ocean is largely shaped by the previous governments “five-hub” growth strategy, which aims to position and build the island as a global naval, aviation, commercial, energy and knowledge center. Foreign Direct Investment was a driving factor in this growth strategy and was largely fulfilled by deep pockets of China[3]. Therefore, Sri Lanka poses to gain immensely from the improved future cooperation in the Indian Ocean.

4.     India’s defensive and offensive strategic needs and desires along with the aspirations of Japanese and US governments to manage Chinese outreach have largely driven maritime relations in the Indian Ocean. In this context Japanese Naval forces are making port calls in Colombo, Sri Lanka[4] that are of a significant importance just as Chinese Nuclear submarines’ port calls back in 2014. India, just as US naval forces and the WW-II allied naval fleet before them, considers Trincomalee[5] as key to the naval control of the greater Indian Ocean[6].  Sri Lanka has been trying to develop Trincomalee as an industrial base that can facilitate maritime trade in the Indian Ocean.

5.     Mistrust towards Indian desires and fear of a possible Indian hegemony in the Indian Ocean by neighbouring countries such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka are driving their relations with outside actors who have interests in securing supply lines in the Indian Ocean, such as China.

6.     Sri Lanka has the ability to respond, because, although India is a major regional power, the tiny island's position near the Indian coastline threatens Indian strategic interests. India fears that Sri Lanka will fall under the influence or control of a hostile power. Moreover, New Delhi is concerned that its peripheral states — Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh — could form a maritime ring around India that would constitute a substantial threat. India seeks to prevent this by interfering with Sri Lanka's internal politics. Because of Sri Lanka's internal divisions, outside intervention always involves favoring one of the island's ethnic groups over the other. This is particularly troublesome for India, which shares Sri Lanka's Tamil minority.3

7.     China’s more ambitious goal is to have countries (in the Indian Ocean) coordinate their policies to ensure that each individual country’s economic development plan feeds into a larger regional vision. That includes free trade areas, both bilaterally and regionally, as well as broad financial integration. On the financial front, Beijing wants expanded bilateral currency swap deals. Funding for the Belt and Road projects will be carried out through the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), China’s own Silk Road Fund, and eventually through a hoped-for financing mechanism administered by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization[7]. Hambantota is built as a joint venture by the Chinese and Sri Lankan governments and is an important part of the Chinese strategy. By the time of completion of all 3 construction phases, the port will be the largest in South Asia, encompassing over 4,000 acres and with the ability to simultaneously berth 33 vessels. Together with Hambantota’s 2717 acres industrial zone, it will be the most capable port to serve the growing maritime trade in the Indian Ocean.

8.     Chinese international aid and credit lines have replaced Western nations in infrastructure development in South Asia and in the case of Sri Lanka China replaced Japan and came in with no political conditions. Chinese strategic outreach to Pakistan and Sri Lanka has been greatly successful in building infrastructure that is vital for the control of the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka is a strong force in driving the strategic cooperative partnership between Sri Lanka and China and was the first country to back the plans for the MSR. Sri Lanka is also an important point in Chinese plans for securing their supply lines, and the deep-water ports in the country accommodate large sea traffic in the Indian Ocean.

9.     The changes in the Japanese constitution allow it to have conventional offensive military capabilities. As the US and its allies, with the support of newfound Japanese naval power, face Chinese maritime outreach to the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka becomes an unavoidable pivot to Indian Ocean cooperation and is important for the control of its choke points as a balancing force.

10.  US Secretary of State John Kerry during his visit to Sri Lanka in May called for “an annual partnership dialogue” and identified the importance of Sri Lanka’s “strategic location near deep-water ports in India and Myanmar,” which could enable it to “serve as the fulcrum of a modern and dynamic Indo-Pacific region.” Together with Sri Lanka’s partnership and commitment to the Maritime Silk Road and its openness towards cooperation with partners outside the immediate periphery of the Indian Ocean, gives it the opportunity to act as a balancing point for different strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

11.  Since the important presidential election in January, Sri Lanka has rapidly been drawn into Washington’s “pivot to Asia”[8] against Beijing. A series of high-level US administration and military figures made highly visible visits to Colombo to secure Sri Lanka’s participation in the USA-India-Japan axis in the Indian Ocean. Since January, Sri Lanka has shifted towards opening up to multilateral cooperation in the Indian Ocean, also involving European partners. Cooperation between Sri Lanka and EU member states during the UNHRC resolution on “Promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka” and the visit to Sri Lanka by the Indian Prime Minister as well as the German Foreign Minister shows the recognition of Sri Lanka’s importance to the stability in the Indian Ocean.

12.  Sri Lanka’s strong partnership in the Maritime Silk Road and its newfound openness to improved cooperation with Western parties for the stability of the Indian Ocean make it an attractive opportunity for outreach and investment in maritime relations in the Indian Ocean. Its geographic position in the middle of major shipping routes and vital naval infrastructure make it a balancing force. Foreign investment in the current government tenure would recognize this strategic importance and help improve maritime cooperation. Free Trade Agreements with India and other regional and global players, already existing internal infrastructure, one of the best available work forces in ICT, services and tourism sector and a 6.4% growth rate in January 2015[9] make Sri Lanka a very attractive opportunity for international investments. The lack of trust between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh leaves South Asia politically divided. Sri Lanka is the only politically neutral regime with strong relationships with India, Pakistan and other neighbours.

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[1]  Sergei DeSilva-Ranasinghe, ‘Why the Indian Ocean Matters’,The Diplomat. Available from: <http://thediplomat.com/2011/03/why-the-indian-ocean-matters/>. March 02, 2011.

[2]  Analysis, ‘Sri Lanka's Imperatives and Challenges ’,Stratfor. Available from: <www.stratfor.com/analysis/sri-lankas-imperatives-and-challenges>. August 26, 2013.

[3]  Chinese plans to spend around 50 Billion USD in the next decade and already invest heavily in strategic infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka in securing their access to the Indian Ocean.

[4]  Two Japanese naval ships, "Akizuki" and "Sawagiri", arrived at the Port of Colombo on a goodwill and supply visit on 19^th July 2015.

[5] Trincomalee harbour is the second best natural harbour in the world and the available water and land area is about 10 times as much as the Port of Colombo. Trincomalee was tentatively identified to cater for bulk and break bulk cargo and port related industrial activities including heavy industries, tourism and agriculture etc.

[6]  (1) Sri Lanka is strategically situated (2) it is ideally situated to be a major communication center, and (3) It has Trincomalee, described by the British Admiral Horatio Nelson as "the finest harbour in the world". Trincomalee is well positioned and equipped to secure Bay of Bengal for any interested party with a strategic need and access. The natural habour has deep inner port and suit well in harbouring Navel fleets including nuclear submarines and this is why British Sri Lanka defense pack in 1947 focused on keeping the habour as a British base to protect its interests in the far east.

[7]  Shannon Tiezzi, ‘Where Is China's Silk Road Actually Going?’ The Diplomat. Available from: <http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/where-is-chinas-silk-road-actually-going/>. March 30, 2015. 

[8]  Pivot to Asia was later was renamed to “re-balancing” since the word “pivot” shows impermanence and rather implies that there has been a sudden shift in American strategic thinking while before that the region was not too important for the country.

[9]  8.2% and 6.3% growth rate was recorded for the same period of time in 2014 and 2013 respectively.